If We Don't Think Ahead, We Get Left Behind

I find myself curled up with such gripping holiday reading such as, um, the Oil Independent Oakland Action Plan and the Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan and the City of Portland's Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas. Oh, and I could spend all day reading about Transition Town Totnes in the U.K.! Here's why. According to the Oakland document:

* "Peak Oil" is defined as the time when the global rate of extraction of petroleum will reach a maximum and begin to decline.

* No scientific authority argues about whether or not this will happen. There is debate about when, with many feeling it is happening right now and others claiming it will happen within the next few years.

* As oil supplies begin to decline, there will be an estimated shortfall of about 2.6% or more per year worldwide.

* In ten years, that means there will be 29% less oil than right now. In twenty years, than means 67% less.

So, any kind of long-term city planning effort that does not take this reality into account is shortsighted and inadequate. The cities that are embracing this situation are mostly trying to create more "urban villages" with needs met locally and without reliance on automobiles. These are definitely some things we've been talking about here in Dunwoody, but I want to again remind people that these are not merely soft, "quality-of-life" issues. These are critical strategic decisions. As the Oakland document states:

The cities that undertake careful planning will find themselves able to respond in a more resilient way, providing a relatively better refuge for their citizens than those cities that do not have a plan.

Key strategies include creating "urban villages," advancing transportation alternatives to the car, supporting clean energy generation, creating green energy jobs (this is going to happen nationwide--how can we get our share of the dollars and opportunities right here in our city?), and maximizing local food production (no, Kroger and Publix and their long-distance-shipped petroleum-dependent commercially-produced food does not make for a secure local food model! I'll write specifically about my vision for a local sustainable food system later this week).

Individuals can take action (and are encouraged by cities embracing this challenge to do so) by aiming to reduce their oil usage by 3% a year. Want an easy solution? Eliminate one work trip per week by telecommuting or eliminate one non-work trip a week by walking or biking--approximate reduction for just one of those actions equals 4% a year!

Anyway, it's all interesting stuff, especially considering our unique opportunity to build the very best city we can, right from the beginning. When we talk about a sustainability committee for the City of Dunwoody, we're not talking touchy-feely stuff to make the city pretty. We're talking about citizens advocating for strategies that support the long-term survival and success for our city and the people and businesses who depend on it. If we don't think ahead, we get left behind.

Here's a transition town primer that you might find interesting.

Whoa. Wasn't I going to make these posts short this week? I can't help it. I love this stuff.